GOVERNANCE PERCEPTIONS AND RETURN INTENTIONS AMONG SYRIAN REFUGEES: EVIDENCE FROM JORDAN IN A TRANSITIONAL POLICY CONTEXT

This study examines uncertainty regarding Syrian refugees’ return during the immediate post-transition phase (December 2024–December 2025), as safety, basic services, livelihoods, and governmental legitimacy remain indeterminate following the post-Assad transition in December 2024, when safety, services, livelihoods, and governmental legitimacy remained uncertain. This study investigates Syrian refugees’ evaluations of political transition, return intentions, perceived conditions and risks, and satisfaction with transitional government actions in Syria during 2024–2025. A quantitative survey design was employed to collect data via simple random sampling, which involved the distribution of 1,000 questionnaires to Syrian refugees in Jordan. A total of 928 valid questionnaires were collected and analysed using SPSS (v.22). Data were collected using a structured questionnaire that included items on political attitudes, return preferences, ranked conditions and fears, and levels of satisfaction. The results suggest a high acceptance of political change (91.9%), a high degree of intention to return (74.6%), and substantial concern about going back (78.1%). Stability, health services, and rule of law are among the key conditions, and security and service shortages are the primary fears. This study provides early large-scale empirical evidence of the relationships between the evaluations of refugees on postregime governance legitimacy and conditional return intentions, perceived security, and satisfaction with the transitional authority during the immediate post-Assad process.