Articles
DOI DOI: 10.62441/actainnovations.v63i.1146

DECADAL WARMING IN INDONESIA’S BRANTAS WATERSHED: URBAN AND TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES

Nugroho Tri Waskitho 1, Febri Arif Cahyo Wibowo2, Galit Gatut Prakosa 3, Ramli Ramadhan1
  1. 1 Department of Forestry, Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang, Malang, Indonesia.
  2. 2 Department of Forestry, Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang, Malang, Indonesia.
  3. 3 Department of Sustainable Biomaterials, College of Natural Resource and Environment, Virginia Tech, Blackburg, Virginia, USA.

Abstract

The aim of this study is to address the limited understanding of spatial–temporal climate change dynamics in tropical monsoon watersheds, which is critical for effective watershed management and climate resilience planning. This study analyzes temperature variability in the Brantas Watershed, East Java, Indonesia, using MODIS remote sensing data from 2005 to 2024 with a 1 km spatial resolution. Linear least-squares analysis was applied to assess temporal trends, and an independent test was used to compare temperature differences between the two decades (2005–2014 and 2015–2024). The analysis reveals a consistent warming trend across the watershed, with an average increase of approximately 0.32°C per decade. Statistically significant warming was detected in Malang and Sidoarjo Regencies, likely influenced by a combination of urban expansion, land cover changes, and the Urban Heat Island effect. Although other regions did not show statistically significant changes, the overall direction of temperature trends aligns with global warming patterns reported by the IPCC. The spatial heterogeneity of warming reflects the interaction of elevation, land use, and urbanization, with highland areas maintaining cooler conditions and lowland urban zones experiencing higher temperatures. These results underscore the importance of localized climate monitoring to capture sub-watershed variations that may be masked by aggregated data. The study highlights the urgent need for integrating adaptive watershed governance incorporating green infrastructure, urban greening, and community-based climate resilience strategies into local water resource management policies to reduce the vulnerability of the Brantas Watershed to climate change impacts.

How to Cite

Waskitho , N. T., Wibowo, F. A. C., Prakosa , G. G., & Ramadhan, R. (2026). DECADAL WARMING IN INDONESIA’S BRANTAS WATERSHED: URBAN AND TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES . ACTA INNOVATIONS, 63, 801–811. https://doi.org/10.62441/actainnovations.v63i.1146
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